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  • Stocks, Gold & Dollar Commentary October 8, 2018

    Stocks
    Stocks fell 2% after racing to new highs. Despite new highs, Breadth continued to deteriorate as nearly 7 times new 52 week lows were recorded vs new highs, indicating broad weakness in small caps. The New Economy sector fell to a 5 month low when compared to the Old Economy. While Downside volume was prevalent 3 out of 5 days, the “heavy dose” we were looking for never showed up, indicating the topping process will likely take longer. A SPY correction to 273.36 (7%), is strong Weekly Fib support, and should be followed by a failed rally. Nearer Fib support 278.35.
    Gold
    After 8 weeks of heavy cartel paper selling, (with the low of 1167 set 8 weeks ago), spot gold closed Friday above the important 1200 level. (1203.50). The metal must now clear 1220 for a move to 1245 and 1310. The XAU continued to inch higher (65.49) with the first positive momentum week after 15 negatives (5 week rate of change).
    The shares have re-established leadership showing a 6 week high when compared to bullion. The key level for the XAU that needs clearing is 84, for the bull market to be established in earnest.
    Dollar
    Sharply higher interest rates, propelled the Dollar (UUP) to approach Fib resistance 25.53. (Actual high 25.48). Strong Fib resistance 26.04. Fib support 24.60 – 24.32 (strong).

  • Stocks, Gold & Dollar Commentary October 1, 2018

    Stocks
    As in recent typical fashion, stocks showed early weakness, only to recover, in the face of the Fed raising interest rates, and end the week with less than a 1% decline. Masking this relative stability was a continued slowdown in Momentum, which has now developed quadruple divergences — that has now turned negative — as the “elevator” has definitely slowed. Even with stocks within striking distance of new highs, Breadth has turned negative in the almost doubling of 52 week lows compared to highs, while Upside/Downside volume has given off a single bearish reading. The upshot: We’re still waiting for a heavy dose of Downside Volume, as October begins, to be followed by a failed rally over the next 4 weeks. Downside SPY targets 278.35 – 273.94.
    Gold
    The metal started the week higher in Asian trading, which turned out to be the high for the week (1203.70), followed by cartel paper selling, desperate to keep gold under 1200 (spot low 1180.60) but ending Friday on a strong bounce (1192). Multi-week bullish Upside/Downside Volume on the shares strongly indicates the metal is ready to move higher, with the spot low (1167) having been made 7 weeks ago. Silver showed relative strength, gapping up 40 cents Friday to a 4 week high (spot 14.64). The 55 week mvg avg for spot gold 1263.52.
    Dollar
    On higher interest rates the Dollar (UUP) bounced to a 3 week high (25.26). Fib resistance 25.53 – 26.04 (strong). Fib support 24.60 – 24.32 (strong).

  • Stocks, Gold & Dollar Commentary September 24, 2018

    Stocks
    After an opening downdraft to start the week, stocks, once again, in stealth-like fashion — on minimal volatility –tacked on another 1% in the safe haven of the biggest NYSE stocks, by Friday, – but could not revive the New Economy sector, which fell to a 5 month low when compared to the Old Economy. Our critical Upside/Downside volume numbers returned to a neutral reading, which means a series of heavy Downside Volume days are critical before we a top can be contemplated. The last 2 Bearish Weekly Squats remain unsatisfied, and were followed last week by a third, on a 13 week high on volume, so this one should produce a decent correction. Downside SPY targets are 278.35 – 273.94, which should be followed by a strong bounce. An October top is still anticipated.
    Gold
    When it appeared that gold had decisively cleared 1200, the cartel puked out 10,000 futures contracts early Friday (worth $1.2B) in 1 minute, driving the paper price to 1191 from 1211 overnight. A steady recovery brought the metal to 1199 by Friday’s close. The shares (XAU) outperformed the metal gaining 4.2% on the week (66.03), on a 4 week high on volume, generating a Bullish Weekly Squat. Fib resistance 77.05. The 55 week mvg avg for the metal 1264.86.
    Dollar
    Declining 5 out of last 6 weeks, the greenback fell less than 1%, (UUP 24.99) on the way to Fib support 24.60 – 24.32 (strong).

  • Stocks,Gold & Dollar Commentary September 17, 2018

    Stocks
    In muted, but relentless fashion, stocks tacked on another 1% gain, closing at all time highs (SPY 290.88). Nothing has really changed. Our Upside/Downside volume numbers remain bearish, Quadruple Bearish Momentum divergences are in play, while Leadership continues to lag, with only a small gain in the New Economy sector vs the Old Economy. It’s only a matter of time before the market gives back the recent gains. Our downside targets remain SPY 278.24 – 275.17, which should be followed by a strong bounce into an October top.
    Gold
    Bullion rallied $17 at its high for the week (1213) but gave it back on non-stop cartel paper selling, in a desperate attempt to keep the metal under 1200, closing 1194.85. After 13 weeks of negative momentum, the XAU bounced from the 62 level to 65.15, settling 63.36, a small advance for the week. We believe the low is in for both metal (spot 1167) and shares, (XAU 60.59) but sideways base-building is likely for several more weeks. A Weekly close over spot 1266.09 will turn the 55 week mvg avg bullish.
    Dollar
    The greenback fell to a 6 week closing low (UUP 25.18). Fib support 24.60 – 24.32 (strong). Strong Fib resistance 26.04.

  • Stocks, Gold & Dollar Commentary September 10, 2018

    Stocks
    Stocks fell only 1.25% last week, but our technicals worsened. Significantly, our Upside/Downside volume numbers finally generated Bearish divergences, along with weak Breadth and importantly, a massive deterioration in the New Economy sector, which registered a 5 month low vs the Old Economy. At this point, this seems only enough deterioration to produce a maximum 5% decline off the highs, which gives us SPY targets of 278.24 – 275.17. Vigorous rallies can be expected off these levels, taking the market to a major October top.
    Gold
    For the second week gold declined $5 (1196.10) after ranging 1206.50 – 1189.50. Gold shares continued to disappoint, falling 4.8% to XAU 63.04. Maximum downside is 54.70, although a short term bottom around 62 is likely, with good rallies from this level, several weeks are still needed for a sustained rally and final low. Important XAU Fib resistance 76.97. Spot gold 55 week mvg avg 1267.41.
    Dollar
    The Dollar was slightly higher by weeks-end (UUP 25.28). Fib support 24.60 – 24.32 (strong). Strong Fib resistance 26.04.

  • Stocks, Gold & Dollar Commentary September 3, 2018

    Stocks
    With news breaking of a probable new NAFTA deal with Mexico, stocks ignored our Bearish Weekly Squat and roared higher as the week opened for trading. The Bearish Squat needs to be satisfied. Breadth and momentum remain bearish while Upside/Downside volume returned to a neutral reading. The New Economy sector went to new highs, but on a relative basis, has still not gone to new highs vs the Old Economy. All in all, our outlook remains the same. For a good, and perhaps final top to be put in place, several weeks of heavier Downside Volume is needed, to be followed by punk volume on the rally. Unless that happens, this bull market will continue to roll along. SPY Fib support 278.24 – 275.17 (strong).
    Gold
    Bullion ended the week $4 lower (1200.80) after ranging 1214 – 1196. Strong Fib support spot gold 1188. GLD 112.44. Fib resistance spot 1243. GLD 117.94. For the bull markets to begin in earnest, look for 3 consecutive Weekly closes over 85.22 for XAU, and GLD 121.04 (1273 spot gold).The 55 week mvg avg is 1268.73.
    Dollar
    The greenback closed essentially unchanged (UUP 25.19) on light volume.Fib support 24.60 – 24.32 (strong). Strong Fib resistance 26.04.

  • Stocks, Gold & Dollar Commentary August 27 2018

    Stocks
    It was a choppy 5 day journey, but stocks eventually made its way to our projected Fib resistance 287.73 (actual high 287.67) on the smallest Weekly range in 8 months, on the lightest volume in over a year, but nevertheless a Bearish Weekly Squat formed, indicating lower prices lie ahead. Good Fib support SPY 274.10 – 270.42 (strong). Fib resistance 288.45. What’s needed for a major top to be put in place is heavy Downside Volume on the decline, followed by weaker Upside Volume on the rally, which, over time, will generate multi-week Bearish divergences. Momentum, Leadership and Breadth remain bearish, so the final, and most important piece of the puzzle needs to fall into place. Timing wise, it’s looking more and more like an October top, which historically has been a bad time for stocks.
    Gold
    The golden buying opportunity presented itself last week, with, for starters a $22 bounce in bullion to 1205, and a 3% rally in the shares. XAU 67.68. Strong Fib support spot gold 1188. GLD 112.44. Fib resistance spot 1243. GLD 117.94. For the bull markets to begin in earnest, look for 3 consecutive Weekly closes over 85.44 for XAU, and GLD 121.05 (1274 spot gold). The 55 week mvg avg is currently 1269.99.
    Dollar
    After failing to clear Fib resistance (UUP 25.53) the greenback fell 1%. Strong Fib support UUP 24.60 – 24.32. Strong Fib resistance 26.04.

  • Stocks, Gold & Dollar Commentary August 20, 2018

    Stocks
    Stocks corrected 2% off the recent SPY high (286.01), on the way to our forecasted 4% correction, when news of talks between China and the US on Trumps tariff war sent stocks rocketing back to, once again, challenge the old highs. However, despite the late-week rally, stocks will likely top here, after a possible move to Fib resistance SPY 287.73, before continuing the correction to SPY 274.86 – 272.10. Vigorous contra-trend rallies are expected off these support levels. The New Economy Leadership that has been fueling this Trump rally for 7 months has likely topped out, setting 4 month lows last week. When adding in failing Breadth, bearish Momentum Divergences, and with bearish Upside/Downside Volume finally showing up last week, an important top is in sight.
    Gold
    The metal fell $28, closing Friday 1183, after touching 1168 in early Asian trading on 8/16. The mining shares were crushed, falling 11% for the week. We were wrong on our timing for a PM bull market. The 7 handle on the Weekly XAU index ADX predicted an enormous move, but unfortunately it came in the wrong direction. The XAU rallied from 38.36 to 114.71 in 7 months and is now correcting that move — deeper than we expected. Long term traders should look upon this correction as a golden buying opportunity, keeping in mind the metal is still up over 40% in the last 10 years, and is carving out an enormous head & shoulders bottom, and filling out the right shoulder basis the Weekly chart. The effort to systematically suppress the true gold price by the banking cartel in collusion with the Comex by using EFP’s in the millions of ounces, instead of real metal to make delivery, (because there is none) is part of the cover-up to support the Dollar, and to obfuscate a debt crisis steamrolling dead-ahead.
    Dollar
    The Dollar failed to clear resistance (UUP 25.53) and fell late in the week closing 25.44. Strong Fib resistance 26.04.

  • Stocks, Gold & Dollar Commentary August 13, 2018

    Stocks
    Last week we wrote “A SPY 286 print is a distinct possibility before any meaningful downside.” (Actual high on 8/7 286.01). While the market hovered with practically zero volatility for 3 days within striking distance of new all-time highs, stocks were registering 3 year lows in Market Breadth, a prelude to about a 4% correction that started on Friday, which will take SPY to 274.86 -272.10, before another attempt at new highs. For a “good” top to take place, strong Downside Volume is needed on the correction, with weak Upside Volume on the subsequent rally. Other bearish factors, ie, Momentum and Leadership, are falling into place. SPY Fib resistance 287.
    Gold
    As a slew of currencies collapsed against the Dollar, gold held fairly steady falling $2 on the week (1211.20) still holding major support  spot 1300 – 1297. The large miners continued to be marked down on a 5 week low in volume, losing 3% (XAU 73.87). To resume their respective bull markets look for a GLD Weekly close over 121.47 (1280 spot), and XAU Weekly close over 85.91. Spot gold 55 week mvg avg 1272.77.
    Dollar
    The Dollar (UUP) gapped higher into strong Fib resistance 25.52, as most emerging market currencies fell sharply, led by the Turkish Lira. Next level of strong Fib resistance UUP 26.04.

  • Stocks, Gold & Dollar Commentary August 6, 2018

    Stocks
    Stocks managed to gain a skimpy 1% last week, as the algos controlled price action, on minimum volatility, once the mid-week uptrend began, as SPY attempts to close the final gap 264.68. With the market relentlessly chugging higher, it is taking 10 times longer to regain the 10 day decline stocks went through from 1/26/18 to 2/9/18. A SPY 266 print is a distinct possibility before any meaningful downside. While only 3% of stocks made new highs last week, our Upside/Downside Volume numbers returned to a neutral reading, mitigating any serious decline over 4% at this point. SPY Fib resistance 284.68, (closes gap), 286.00. SPY Fib support 274.46 – 268.67 (strong).
    Gold
    On news of a not so robust jobs report, gold bounced off the lows (spot 1203.80), closing 1213.50, after touching 1220. With the metal almost reaching major support levels (1300 – 1297), odds favor a strong bounce with GLD 120.93 an important target (1273 spot). The XAU fell less than 1%, and can rally to 80.67 Fib resistance. To resume their respective bull markets look for a GLD weekly close over 121.47 (1280 spot), and an XAU Weekly close over 86.01.
    Dollar
    The Dollar bounced less than 1% on a punk jobs report, and should challenge the recent high (UUP 25.24). Fib resistance UUP 25.52 (strong)