If you’re a bear, the good news: The New Economy sector went from all-time highs a week ago to 3 week lows when measured against the Old Economy, and significant downside volume occurred in 4 out of 5 days, with the heaviest on Thursday registering nearly 10 to 1 on the downside. If you’re a bull: The price decline of 6.5% for the week was simply too great relative to overall volume which declined about 23% from the prior week. Therefore, we did not get Bearish readings in our Upside/Downside Volume studies. Additionally, there was a distinct improvement in Breadth, as new 52 week lows was less than half that occurred the week of Feb 9. More time (possibly several more weeks) are needed for Bearish Upside/Downside Volume readings to occur. The market should now rally to an interim top around April 10, and then more sideways, choppy trading within wide trading ranges.
The market swoon, trade war rumblings, and Dollar weakness gave impetus to a strong $35 gold rally, settling for the week 1347. Significant gold resistance 1401 (GLD 132.96). With the possibility of a market rally and a firming Dollar, a short term high is due March 29 with GLD support 126.18 (1333), 125.67 (1327). Three Weekly closes over 1360 should start a move to GLD 163.31 (1704).The shares (XAU index) have led bullion for 4 weeks, but volume was punk, so in the short term continued sideways is likely.
For the past several weeks, the Dollar has held in a tight range (UUP 23.08 – 23.77), and will likely remain there until stocks and gold break out of their ranges. Major Fib support 22.40. Major Fib resistance 25.05.