In an amazing 14 week bull run, stocks have gained 22.5%, but still within the bounds of the 24% rally after the 2007 – 2009 crash. Seven straight up-days, powered Friday by a fake news Jobs Report (196,000 job gains while full time positions plunged 190,000???) have taken SPY (288.57) somewhat close to exceeding the neckline limit (290.61) basis the Daily chart. To put an end to the rally, look for a SPY close under 286.42 on Tuesday, April 9. Failing that, expect more upside after an over-bought relatively minor setback. We had expected the New Economy sector to seriously falter — which was the remaining piece of the puzzle — to indicate an impending top. Unfortunately, this did not happen, and is now less than 1% from new all time highs. SPY Fib support 279.28. SPY Fib resistance 289.41.
After an early bounce to 1297, spot gold retreated in choppy trading, making a double bottom 1280.50 on April 4 (matching low of March 7), before settling 1291.40. Expect important low mid April followed by mid May breakout. Spot support 1281 – 1271. GLD Fib resistance 125.89. In the meantime, the gold shares re-asserted leadership of the group with an 8 month high vs the metal. Our Upside/Downside volume studies remain extremely bullish for the shares and should lead the group higher, once the metal pushes through major resistance (Monthly close spot over 1360). SLV needs strong close over 14.36 to turn Daily trend bullish. SLV Fib resistance 14.74. XAU needs Monthly close over 78.05 to seek 3 digit levels.
The greenback was little changed on the week after challenging 6 month highs UUP 26.12. (Actual high 26.10. A strong close under 25.72 turns our 89 line trendlines lower, and bear phase for the Dollar.