The Right Way To Trade

The Right Way To Trade

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Stocks, Gold & Dollar Commentary January 22, 2019

Stocks
The pull-back off last weeks bearish Squat lasted exactly one day, amounting to 1%, before rallying four days (in options expiration week) for another 3% bounce to SPY 266.98, on a 14 week low in volume, (bearish) and fulfilling our projected first bounce of 12 to 14% off the bear market low (actual 13.7%). Stocks now sit at important resistance, having touched our fast 89 line on Friday. Our Upside/Downside volume numbers remain bearish throughout the 16 day rally. With the bearish Weekly Squat remaining unsatisfied, we expect a sharp pullback at any time, into Fib Support SPY 254.47 – 252.52 (strong), — then another bounce — which should be the final bounce, before stocks crater to new lows. This choppy trading will take us into early February.
Gold
As suggested last week, the metal hit our projected target 1294 – 1310, and is in the process of consolidating the 11% rally from 1167 in August 2018, to the prior weeks high of 1297. The 1280 Fib support level was touched on Friday, with spot closing the week 1281.30. Maximum Fib support 1269 – 1260. In keeping with golds’ safe-haven status, silver under-performed, but still closed comfortably above both our key 89 lines. It’s important for gold investors to fully appreciate that gold is in a strong bull market around the word, having reached at, or near all-time highs, in 72 countries (currencies) while being constantly suppressed in US Dollar terms. GLD Fib support 119.25. GDX Fib sup 19.67. SLV Fib support 14.07. The gold shares are maintaining bullish Upside/Downside volume readings. The 55 week mvg avg for spot gold is 1258.43.
Dollar
A bit of a surprise, as the Dollar (UUP) bounced back into our two 89 lines, closing 25.56. UUP should find strong Fib resistance at 25.66, before starting a bear run, with Fib support 24.68 – 24.32 (strong).

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