The Right Way To Trade

The Right Way To Trade

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Stocks, Gold & Dollar Commentary January 14, 2019

Stocks
Stocks had a good week, tacking on 2.0% on four out of five up-days, closing the week out flat. The General Market has now gained 10.6 in 11 trading days since the low (SPY 233.76) on December 26, on its way to an eventual 12 to 14% bounce off its first bear market low — with the reversal of the Primary Trend having been established — this is typical of first bounces off the bear market lows as in 2000 and 2007, which saw 12% bounces. SPY 263.51 is an important Fib target. But first, a consolidation, and pull-back is likely, with last weeks Bearish Weekly Squat on a 14 week low in Weekly Range. SPY Fib support 247.17. A high day is due January 22/23.
Gold
Several weeks ago we put out our target for spot gold at 1294 – 1310. That target was reached with a spot 1297 print last Thursday, January 10. Fierce cartel paper selling near the highs, drove down the spot price to 1280, before settling 1288.20. Both gold and silver will likely go into consolidation, which is very healthy, and a precursor for a strong next leg up. Spot gold will find Fib support 1280. Silver 15.60. In the event of an all-out cartel raid, maximum Fib support 1269 – 1260.  Important to note that spot gold has now completed its third consecutive week over the 55 week mvg avg 1258.01, solidifying the bull move. GLD Fib resistance 123.86. GDX Fib resistance 20.77. The gold shares were flat on the week but registered a 7 month high when measured against the Dollar.
Dollar
The Dollar (UUP) fell decisively through our 2 converging 89 lines (bearish) to settle 25.36, and now projects UUP 24.68 – 24.32 (strong) and the start of a new down trend.

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