Stocks fell 4% on the low (SPY 267.01) before a Friday rally cut the loss in half with SPY closing 273.73. A cyclical peak is due around November 23, and with Bullish Momentum still being worked off, a bounce is likely with SPY 282.58 – 286.64 as major Fib resistance. Upside/Downside volume remain bearish. The New Economy sector failed to lead the market bounce, and recorded 10 month lows vs the Old Economy. A slight improvement in Market Breadth should sustain the bounce before heading to new lows.
The cartel is rapidly losing influence to control the gold price. A last ditch attempt to sell paper gold under 1200 failed with a $26 rally from the mid-week low (1195.50) to a Friday close 1222. Look for a Friday close of the spot price over 1233 to constitute a breakout, and a move to 1310. The XAU maintained leadership over the metal, bouncing 3% (66.08). Bullish Momentum divergences have fallen into place, with an Upside Breakout likely past the Thanksgiving holiday.
The greenback (UUP) traded into major FIB resistance 26.04 (actual high 26.02) before selling off sharply, with a Friday close 25.71. Fib support 24.68 – 24.32 (strong).